YUSAG Bracketology

Updated Dec 15th.

By: Luke Benz

Welcome to YUSAG Bracketology! Below is our attempt to predict the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament field of 68. Automatic bids are awarded to the highest ranked team in each conference, per our power-rankings. At-large bids are awarded to the 36 remaining teams with the best blend of several metrics. Those metrics are:

  • YUSAG Coefficient: Model coefficients for NCAA Hoops prediction model, used in our power rankings. More on model methodology can be found here
  • RPI: NCAA Rating Percentage Index. RPI is a stupid, outdated way to select tournament teams, yet the NCAA uses it anyway. Did we mention it's stupid? Note that the RPI we use is a projected end of season RPI that updates throughout the course of the season.
  • Strength of Record (SOR): We calculate strength of record by computing the difference in a team's win total and the number of wins we would expect the 25th ranked team (per YUSAG Coefficient) to earn against a given team's schedule. We use projected end of season win total (which updates with each new game outcome) when computing Strength of Record to avoid one strange result skewing this metric
  • Resume Rank: Using our power rankings, we compute each team's record against the four tiers recently added to the NCAA Tournament selection committee's "Win Sheets". These records are then combined to create a quality of resume metric. The current formula for quality of resume can be seen below.
  • Wins Above Bubble (WAB): The difference in the number of wins a team has compared to the expected number of wins an average "bubble" team would earn against a given teams' schedule. We compute WAB by computing a team's win expected win difference against each of the at-large teams ranked 32-40 by YUSAG coefficient and averaging these differences

The current "blend" formula can be seen below. It may be revised during the season. Automatic bids are denoted by bold, while the "First Four" (last four at-large bids, worst four automatic bids) are denoted by italics. The raw values of these metrics for all 351 Division-1 teams can be found here
.

We will be featured in the Bracket Matrix, a site that compares and evaluates over 100 bracketology rankings from all corners of the internet, if you're curious how these rankings stack up against other systems. Additionally, Ken Massey's site will be tracking how our model (and dozens of other models) fairs this season, so feel free to check out our progress there. The code used for this project can be found on Luke Benz's GitHub and the methodology for this project can be found here.

NOTE: Only D1 games are considered for the purpose of these rankings


To sort a table by a specific column, simply click the column name.

YUSAG Bracket
Seed Line Overall Seed Team Conference YUSAG Rank RPI Rank SOR Rank Resume Rank WAB Rank Blend
1 1 North Carolina ACC 1 1 2 1 1 26.63
2 1 Villanova Big East 4 2 3 2 3 25.45
3 1 West Virginia Big 12 3 14 1 5 2 25.6
4 1 Duke ACC 6 3 5 23 5 23.78
5 2 Purdue Big 10 7 8 6 12 6 22.99
6 2 Kentucky SEC 14 5 8 9 7 20.77
7 2 Wichita St. AAC 8 4 13 8 13 22.22
8 2 Virginia ACC 10 6 7 24 8 21.28
9 3 Florida SEC 12 16 9 4 9 20.93
10 3 Xavier Big East 17 11 10 10 10 19.89
11 3 Kansas Big 12 2 10 4 50 4 26.23
12 3 Creighton Big East 15 15 12 7 11 20.4
13 4 Gonzaga WCC 5 9 25 3 27 25.44
14 4 Arizona Pac 12 11 17 17 15 15 21.2
15 4 Florida St. ACC 16 29 11 6 12 20.32
16 4 Louisville ACC 13 21 21 17 23 20.8
17 5 Oregon Pac 12 9 19 28 11 28 21.36
18 5 Seton Hall Big East 28 18 14 36 14 17.11
19 5 Butler Big East 22 24 20 16 20 18.42
20 5 Arkansas SEC 27 20 23 35 19 17.32
21 6 Michigan St. Big 10 20 35 18 25 18 18.72
22 6 Cincinnati AAC 18 22 32 14 35 19.71
23 6 Nevada MWC 29 7 36 32 34 16.88
24 6 Arizona St. Pac 12 37 36 16 18 16 15.3
25 7 Texas A&M SEC 36 23 24 31 24 15.51
26 7 Baylor Big 12 19 38 15 61 17 18.73
27 7 Clemson ACC 32 25 31 38 33 16.25
28 7 Auburn SEC 41 26 33 28 31 14.67
29 8 Miami (FL) ACC 25 28 27 52 29 17.83
30 8 Middle Tenn. C-USA 48 12 46 21 46 14.47
31 8 UCLA Pac 12 24 31 30 51 30 18.34
32 8 South Carolina SEC 33 27 34 45 32 16.13
33 9 Michigan Big 10 23 44 26 42 25 18.42
34 9 TCU Big 12 26 37 22 88 22 17.79
35 9 Texas Tech Big 12 21 59 19 56 21 18.61
36 9 Rhode Island A-10 54 13 52 34 55 13.1
37 10 Tennessee SEC 44 34 29 73 26 14.62
38 10 SMU AAC 30 43 50 13 54 16.75
39 10 Utah Pac 12 39 39 40 47 40 15.26
40 10 Notre Dame ACC 34 51 37 39 37 16.01
41 11 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 40 30 56 19 60 15.13
42 11 Maryland Big 10 38 41 39 55 38 15.3
43 11 Houston AAC 42 45 54 20 57 14.66
44 11 Syracuse ACC 51 33 41 98 41 14.14
45 11 Boise St. MWC 61 42 53 44 53 11.41
46 11 Ohio St. Big 10 46 48 38 93 39 14.59
47 12 Virginia Tech ACC 35 80 42 29 45 15.95
48 12 Loyola Chicago MVC 78 32 70 49 72 8.21
49 12 Vermont Am. East 89 40 82 27 86 6.65
50 12 UT Arlington Sunbelt 87 49 89 26 92 7.16
51 13 New Mexico St. WAC 90 60 81 79 84 6.57
52 13 Northern Ky. Horizon 113 72 98 30 105 3.67
53 13 Belmont OVC 96 73 102 53 101 5.74
54 13 South Dakota Summit 102 89 85 54 96 5.34
55 14 FGCU A-Sun 101 87 95 40 102 5.48
56 14 Bucknell Patriot 111 53 120 65 125 3.75
57 14 Towson CAA 124 52 110 87 112 2.64
58 14 ETSU Southern 114 70 109 64 115 3.6
59 15 Ohio MAC 116 66 123 100 122 3.38
60 15 Portland St. Big Sky 157 86 97 110 100 0.79
61 15 Iona MAAC 127 58 139 109 141 2.41
62 15 Winthrop Big South 145 109 114 67 132 1.46
63 16 UC Davis Big West 168 84 130 142 136 0.19
64 16 Texas Southern SWAC 198 144 143 80 148 -2.28
65 16 Princeton Ivy 130 157 155 171 159 2.22
66 16 Robert Morris NEC 224 151 180 85 184 -4.14
67 16 N.C. Central MEAC 231 213 169 101 180 -4.7
68 16 A&M-Corpus Chris Southland 169 225 211 227 217 0.0
First 16 Teams Out
Overall Seed Team Conference YUSAG Rank RPI Rank SOR Rank Resume Rank WAB Rank Blend
69 Southern California Pac 12 47 46 45 90 47 14.5
70 Marquette Big East 50 61 44 66 44 14.34
71 Alabama SEC 57 50 48 108 43 12.88
72 UAB C-USA 71 55 63 37 68 9.01
73 Oklahoma St. Big 12 31 107 35 68 36 16.69
74 VCU A-10 67 67 67 43 70 10.75
75 BYU WCC 76 56 64 70 69 8.36
76 Old Dominion C-USA 72 65 78 22 82 8.8
77 Fresno St. MWC 80 62 65 72 67 8.1
78 Georgia SEC 64 71 57 107 52 10.88
79 Missouri SEC 66 68 58 116 56 10.8
80 UNI MVC 95 47 75 97 73 5.87
81 St. John's (NY) Big East 69 94 61 89 61 9.45
82 Northwestern Big 10 56 101 51 125 49 13.01
83 Oklahoma Big 12 52 113 43 131 42 13.94
84 UCF AAC 75 83 74 83 76 8.47




Bid Breakdown by Conference
Conference Bids
ACC 10
SEC 7
Big 10 5
Big 12 5
Big East 5
Pac 12 5
AAC 4
MWC 2
WCC 2
A-10 1
A-Sun 1
Am. East 1
Big Sky 1
Big South 1
Big West 1
C-USA 1
CAA 1
Horizon 1
Ivy 1
MAAC 1
MAC 1
MEAC 1
MVC 1
NEC 1
OVC 1
Patriot 1
Southern 1
Southland 1
Summit 1
Sunbelt 1
SWAC 1
WAC 1