YUSAG Bracketology

Updated February 20th

By: Luke Benz

Welcome to YUSAG Bracketology! Below is our attempt to predict the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament field of 68. Automatic bids are awarded to the highest ranked team in each conference, per our power-rankings. At-large bids are awarded to the 36 remaining teams with the best blend of several metrics. Those metrics are:

  • YUSAG Coefficient: Model coefficients for NCAA Hoops prediction model, used in our power rankings. More on model methodology can be found here
  • RPI: NCAA Rating Percentage Index. RPI is a stupid, outdated way to select tournament teams, yet the NCAA uses it anyway. Did we mention it's stupid? Note that the RPI we use is a projected end of season RPI that updates throughout the course of the season.
  • Strength of Record (SOR): We calculate strength of record by computing the difference in a team's win total and the number of wins we would expect the average Top-25 ranked team (per YUSAG Coefficient) to earn against a given team's schedule. We use projected end of season win total (which updates with each new game outcome) when computing Strength of Record to avoid one strange result skewing this metric
  • Resume Rank: Using our power rankings, we compute each team's record against the four tiers recently added to the NCAA Tournament selection committee's "Win Sheets". These records are then combined to create a quality of resume metric. The current formula for quality of resume can be seen below.
  • Wins Above Bubble (WAB): The difference in the number of wins a team has compared to the expected number of wins an average "bubble" team would earn against a given teams' schedule. We compute WAB by computing a team's win expected win difference against each of the at-large teams ranked 32-40 by YUSAG coefficient and averaging these differences

The current "blend" formula can be seen below. It may be revised during the season. Automatic bids are denoted by bold, while the "First Four" (last four at-large bids, worst four automatic bids) are denoted by italics. The raw values of these metrics for all 351 Division-1 teams can be found here
.

We will be featured in the Bracket Matrix, a site that compares and evaluates over 100 bracketology rankings from all corners of the internet, if you're curious how these rankings stack up against other systems. Additionally, Ken Massey's site will be tracking how our model (and dozens of other models) fairs this season, so feel free to check out our progress there. The code used for this project can be found on Luke Benz's GitHub and the methodology for this project can be found here.

NOTE: Only D1 games are considered for the purpose of these rankings


To sort a table by a specific column, simply click the column name.

YUSAG Bracket
Seed Line Overall Seed Team Conference YUSAG Rank RPI Rank SOR Rank Resume Rank WAB Rank Blend
1 1 Virginia ACC 2 1 1 3 1 1.80
1 2 Villanova Big East 1 2 2 2 2 1.90
1 3 Xavier Big East 14 3 4 4 3 4.55
1 4 Duke ACC 3 4 5 8 5 5.75
2 5 Kansas Big 12 12 6 9 1 8 5.85
2 6 North Carolina ACC 8 5 7 6 6 6.20
2 7 Auburn SEC 13 7 10 5 10 8.25
2 8 Texas Tech Big 12 9 14 8 7 9 8.70
3 9 Purdue Big 10 4 13 6 12 7 8.95
3 10 Cincinnati AAC 6 8 12 10 14 11.00
3 11 Michigan St. Big 10 5 15 3 27 4 13.15
3 12 Tennessee SEC 16 16 15 14 11 13.45
4 13 Wichita St. AAC 11 11 16 11 18 13.95
4 14 Clemson ACC 21 12 13 16 12 14.40
4 15 West Virginia Big 12 10 31 22 9 15 14.70
4 16 Gonzaga WCC 7 27 11 33 16 21.65
5 17 Arizona Pac 12 29 18 23 22 21 22.05
5 18 Ohio St. Big 10 17 20 14 37 13 22.60
5 19 Houston AAC 23 21 19 23 25 23.10
5 20 Texas A&M SEC 30 23 42 15 27 24.20
6 21 TCU Big 12 20 22 36 21 26 24.25
6 22 Kentucky SEC 35 19 39 20 24 24.70
6 23 Arkansas SEC 27 26 32 25 23 25.30
6 24 Nevada MWC 34 10 21 39 19 26.80
7 25 Rhode Island A-10 24 9 17 45 20 27.75
7 26 Michigan Big 10 31 37 18 42 17 29.25
7 27 Creighton Big East 19 40 26 40 22 30.20
7 28 Oklahoma Big 12 40 46 48 17 34 31.25
8 29 Florida St. ACC 28 57 27 29 30 31.85
8 30 Butler Big East 18 39 40 32 32 32.10
8 31 Baylor Big 12 22 44 46 26 36 32.90
8 32 Missouri SEC 42 33 55 18 39 32.95
9 33 Virginia Tech ACC 33 58 29 31 29 33.00
9 34 Kansas St. Big 12 43 66 31 28 28 33.60
9 35 Florida SEC 41 63 61 13 42 35.75
9 36 Seton Hall Big East 37 32 43 38 33 36.05
10 37 North Carolina St. ACC 39 61 35 36 31 36.95
10 38 Arizona St. Pac 12 32 35 38 35 41 37.10
10 39 Middle Tenn. C-USA 61 17 24 41 38 37.85
10 40 Miami (FL) ACC 46 36 33 44 35 39.15
11 41 Alabama SEC 47 34 75 19 49 39.40
11 42 Texas Big 12 48 64 58 24 40 39.40
11 43 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 25 29 20 57 37 40.30
11 44 St. Bonaventure A-10 53 24 34 47 44 42.95
11 45 Louisville ACC 38 50 51 52 46 48.20
11 46 Syracuse ACC 59 38 64 43 51 49.00
12 47 New Mexico St. WAC 50 51 28 66 50 53.50
12 48 Loyola Chicago MVC 73 28 37 62 58 55.80
12 49 Louisiana Sunbelt 51 30 25 78 52 56.10
12 50 ETSU Southern 70 43 30 81 57 62.60
13 51 Vermont Am. East 66 45 45 86 62 67.40
13 52 Old Dominion C-USA 45 73 53 73 71 67.50
13 53 Buffalo MAC 82 25 67 84 75 73.05
13 54 South Dakota Summit 71 69 47 98 68 76.80
14 55 Belmont OVC 87 68 71 76 87 79.65
14 56 Montana Big Sky 76 88 69 92 79 83.15
14 57 UC Santa Barbara Big West 104 89 65 97 83 88.80
14 58 Northeastern CAA 110 55 99 87 102 92.55
15 59 SFA Southland 138 119 54 115 80 99.35
15 60 Bucknell Patriot 91 80 90 122 97 102.75
15 61 Northern Ky. Horizon 77 107 92 114 103 103.55
15 62 Penn Ivy 122 121 83 138 101 116.25
16 63 Wagner NEC 160 91 81 150 104 122.10
16 64 Canisius MAAC 109 110 125 135 140 130.65
16 65 Winthrop Big South 118 131 107 145 128 131.15
16 66 FGCU A-Sun 145 146 116 170 139 148.85
16 67 Hampton MEAC 259 246 208 226 231 231.25
16 68 Texas Southern SWAC 264 260 261 251 251 254.20




First 16 Teams Out
Overall Seed Team Conference YUSAG Rank RPI Rank SOR Rank Resume Rank WAB Rank Blend
69 Marquette Big East 44 67 66 48 48 51.30
70 UCLA Pac 12 58 47 59 46 55 51.75
71 Providence Big East 75 42 62 50 47 51.85
72 Boise St. MWC 54 52 44 59 54 54.55
73 Maryland Big 10 36 62 50 72 45 55.75
74 LSU SEC 62 83 86 30 65 56.35
75 Georgia SEC 72 77 88 34 61 56.95
76 Mississippi St. SEC 52 78 60 53 56 57.15
77 Utah Pac 12 69 56 72 51 59 58.20
78 Penn St. Big 10 15 75 56 74 53 59.05
79 Southern California Pac 12 57 41 76 55 66 59.75
80 Notre Dame ACC 26 76 74 65 60 61.35
81 Nebraska Big 10 65 79 41 80 43 61.55
82 South Dakota St. Summit 78 60 49 71 64 65.95
83 Oklahoma St. Big 12 74 117 89 49 63 67.20
84 Washington Pac 12 94 59 78 54 72 67.20




Conference Bids
ACC 10
Big 12 8
SEC 8
Big East 5
Big 10 4
AAC 3
A-10 2
C-USA 2
Pac 12 2
WCC 2
A-Sun 1
Am. East 1
Big Sky 1
Big South 1
Big West 1
CAA 1
Horizon 1
Ivy 1
MAAC 1
MAC 1
MEAC 1
MVC 1
MWC 1
NEC 1
OVC 1
Patriot 1
Southern 1
Southland 1
Summit 1
Sunbelt 1
SWAC 1
WAC 1