YUSAG Bracketology

Updated July 17th

By: Luke Benz

Welcome to YUSAG Bracketology! Below is our attempt to predict the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament field of 68. Automatic bids are awarded to the highest ranked team in each conference, per our power-rankings. At-large bids are awarded to the 36 remaining teams with the best blend of several metrics. Those metrics are:

  • YUSAG Coefficient: Model coefficients for NCAA Hoops prediction model, used in our power rankings. More on model methodology can be found here
  • RPI: NCAA Rating Percentage Index. RPI is a stupid, outdated way to select tournament teams, yet the NCAA uses it anyway. Did we mention it's stupid? Note that the RPI we use is a projected end of season RPI that updates throughout the course of the season.
  • Strength of Record (SOR): We calculate strength of record by computing the difference in a team's win total and the number of wins we would expect the 25th ranked team (per YUSAG Coefficient) to earn against a given team's schedule. We use projected end of season win total (which updates with each new game outcome) when computing Strength of Record to avoid one strange result skewing this metric
  • Resume Rank: Using our power rankings, we compute each team's record against the four tiers recently added to the NCAA Tournament selection committee's "Win Sheets". These records are then combined to create a quality of resume metric. The current formula for quality of resume can be seen below.
  • Wins Above Bubble (WAB): The difference in the number of wins a team has compared to the expected number of wins an average "bubble" team would earn against a given teams' schedule. We compute WAB by computing a team's win expected win difference against each of the at-large teams ranked 32-40 by YUSAG coefficient and averaging these differences

The current "blend" formula can be seen below. It may be revised during the season. Automatic bids are denoted by bold, while the "First Four" (last four at-large bids, worst four automatic bids) are denoted by italics. The raw values of these metrics for all 351 Division-1 teams can be found here
.

We will be featured in the Bracket Matrix, a site that compares and evaluates over 100 bracketology rankings from all corners of the internet, if you're curious how these rankings stack up against other systems. Additionally, Ken Massey's site will be tracking how our model (and dozens of other models) fairs this season, so feel free to check out our progress there. The code used for this project can be found on Luke Benz's GitHub and the methodology for this project can be found here.

NOTE: The 2017-18 schedule has yet to be released. The numbers below are the result of using 2017-18 pre-season rankings on the 2016-17, and as a result are fairly worthless. They were computed in order to test out the above metrics and to build YUSAG Bracketology. We'll update the table as soon as the entire 2017-18 schedule is released on the NCAA's official website. Only D1 games are considered for the purpose of these rankings


To sort a table by a specific column, simply click the column name.

YUSAG Bracket
Seed Line Overall Seed Team Conference YUSAG Rank RPI Rank SOR Rank Resume Rank WAB Rank Blend
1 1 Kansas Big 12 2 2 1 4 1 1.90
1 2 Villanova Big East 7 1 3 1 3 2.70
1 3 North Carolina ACC 1 4 6 6 5 4.45
1 4 Kentucky SEC 4 7 4 11 4 5.95
2 5 Louisville ACC 9 3 8 13 6 7.00
2 6 Baylor Big 12 26 6 2 9 2 7.85
2 7 Gonzaga WCC 6 10 7 2 15 8.60
2 8 Florida SEC 3 5 11 23 7 9.00
3 9 Oregon Pac 12 8 9 12 12 11 10.30
3 10 UCLA Pac 12 12 19 5 3 8 10.55
3 11 Arizona Pac 12 18 8 10 16 12 11.90
3 12 Florida St. ACC 20 11 14 7 14 12.95
4 13 Butler Big East 25 12 15 5 10 13.10
4 14 Duke ACC 10 13 13 17 13 13.15
4 15 West Virginia Big 12 5 26 9 30 9 16.65
4 16 Virginia ACC 13 17 20 18 17 17.15
5 17 SMU AAC 16 15 19 15 22 17.35
5 18 Purdue Big 10 15 20 17 14 18 17.35
5 19 Cincinnati AAC 21 14 16 28 23 19.35
5 20 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 28 16 22 8 32 21.00
6 21 Notre Dame ACC 27 22 18 20 19 21.05
6 22 Iowa St. Big 12 11 33 21 39 16 24.80
6 23 Wichita St. AAC 17 40 26 10 34 28.05
6 24 Maryland Big 10 47 28 25 24 24 28.85
7 25 Creighton Big East 24 35 29 29 26 29.45
7 26 Minnesota Big 10 42 18 28 50 25 29.80
7 27 Wisconsin Big 10 19 48 24 27 21 30.30
7 28 Arkansas SEC 36 31 27 61 27 34.65
8 29 Miami (FL) ACC 32 39 31 40 30 34.70
8 30 Oklahoma St. Big 12 22 41 23 72 20 35.00
8 31 Dayton A-10 53 24 41 21 43 35.10
8 32 South Carolina SEC 23 42 34 52 31 36.85
9 33 Virginia Tech ACC 45 47 30 32 28 37.25
9 34 Seton Hall Big East 52 50 32 19 29 37.85
9 35 Southern California Pac 12 50 43 33 33 36 39.15
9 36 Wake Forest ACC 34 37 44 43 41 39.65
10 37 Middle Tenn. C-USA 64 30 35 31 48 39.85
10 38 VCU A-10 44 23 52 38 54 40.40
10 39 UNCW CAA 72 21 46 26 59 42.00
10 40 Illinois St. MVC 61 29 38 59 47 43.70
11 41 Michigan Big 10 14 52 43 64 39 43.70
11 42 Monmouth MAAC 100 25 39 22 51 43.80
11 43 Marquette Big East 31 62 42 41 37 45.20
11 44 Vermont Am. East 86 32 40 25 56 45.45
11 45 Northwestern Big 10 55 51 37 53 35 45.90
11 46 Xavier Big East 29 38 47 89 38 46.10
12 47 Nevada MWC 43 36 51 46 61 46.55
12 48 Kansas St. Big 12 41 69 36 57 33 49.20
12 49 Michigan St. Big 10 39 53 49 75 42 51.20
12 50 Providence Big East 59 60 45 54 40 51.95
13 51 Princeton Ivy 77 34 57 34 74 53.05
13 52 UT Arlington Sunbelt 85 27 58 68 71 56.85
13 53 Houston AAC 48 49 60 73 64 57.65
13 54 Belmont OVC 91 45 50 71 69 61.60
14 55 New Mexico St. WAC 92 59 54 48 75 64.50
14 56 FGCU A-Sun 109 64 62 36 79 69.15
14 57 Bucknell Patriot 94 56 78 37 89 69.85
14 58 ETSU Southern 82 55 71 74 84 70.90
15 59 Akron MAC 107 58 63 95 80 76.30
15 60 UNC Asheville Big South 136 65 89 69 101 88.25
15 61 Oakland Horizon 104 103 87 56 99 92.10
15 62 South Dakota Summit 144 92 105 112 121 111.20
16 63 Texas Southern SWAC 237 90 93 60 106 111.35
16 64 A&M-Corpus Chris Southland 200 123 110 113 129 131.65
16 65 N.C. Central MEAC 174 207 96 51 115 138.05
16 66 North Dakota Big Sky 162 157 109 128 130 138.40
16 67 UC Irvine Big West 138 138 149 107 153 138.55
16 68 Mt. St. Mary's NEC 209 147 164 108 165 157.45




First 16 Teams Out
Overall Seed Team Conference YUSAG Rank RPI Rank SOR Rank Resume Rank WAB Rank Blend
69 Syracuse ACC 37 79 65 45 53 59.60
70 Rhode Island A-10 57 44 70 67 70 59.80
71 Georgia SEC 63 61 55 84 45 60.35
72 California Pac 12 56 57 61 78 57 60.80
73 Vanderbilt SEC 38 46 67 122 49 61.00
74 Clemson ACC 40 74 64 85 50 63.75
75 Indiana Big 10 33 83 68 66 55 64.35
76 TCU Big 12 30 94 53 104 46 68.10
77 Utah Pac 12 46 81 59 87 63 68.65
78 Ole Miss SEC 69 85 66 65 52 69.20
79 Illinois Big 10 60 67 75 86 62 69.40
80 Valparaiso MVC 96 68 69 42 82 71.30
81 Col. of Charleston CAA 110 54 73 55 83 72.15
82 Winthrop Big South 142 63 56 35 78 72.25
83 Texas Tech Big 12 35 134 48 70 44 74.35
84 Iowa Big 10 70 78 72 98 58 74.60




Bid Breakdown by Conference
Conference Bids
ACC 9
Big 10 7
Big East 7
Big 12 6
AAC 4
Pac 12 4
SEC 4
A-10 2
WCC 2
A-Sun 1
Am. East 1
Big Sky 1
Big South 1
Big West 1
C-USA 1
CAA 1
Horizon 1
Ivy 1
MAAC 1
MAC 1
MEAC 1
MVC 1
MWC 1
NEC 1
OVC 1
Patriot 1
Southern 1
Southland 1
Summit 1
Sunbelt 1
SWAC 1
WAC 1