YUSAG Bracketology

Updated March 17th (FINAL)

By: Luke Benz

Welcome to YUSAG Bracketology! Below is our attempt to predict the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament field of 68. Automatic bids are awarded to the highest ranked per a blend of several metrics. At-large bids are awarded to the 36 remaining teams with the best blend of several metrics. Those metrics are:

YUSAG Coefficient: Model coefficients for NCAA Hoops prediction model, used in our power rankings. More on model methodology can be found here
RPI: NCAA Rating Percentage Index. RPI is a stupid, outdated way to select tournament teams, yet the NCAA uses it anyway. Did we mention it's stupid? Note that the RPI we use is a projected end of season RPI that updates throughout the course of the season.
Strength of Record (SOR): We calculate strength of record by computing the difference in a team's win total and the number of wins we would expect the average Top-25 ranked team (per YUSAG Coefficient) to earn against a given team's schedule. We use projected end of season win total (which updates with each new game outcome) when computing Strength of Record to avoid one strange result skewing this metric
Resume Rank: Using our power rankings, we compute each team's record against the four tiers recently added to the NCAA Tournament selection committee's "Win Sheets". These records are then combined to create a quality of resume metric. The current formula for quality of resume can be seen below.
Wins Above Bubble (WAB): The difference in the number of wins a team has compared to the expected number of wins an average "bubble" team would earn against a given teams' schedule. We compute WAB by computing a team's win expected win difference against each of the at-large teams ranked 32-40 by YUSAG coefficient and averaging these differences

Using a weighted "blend" of the metrics, the teams are selected to the bracket.The current "blend" formula can be seen below.. Automatic bids are denoted by bold, while the "First Four" (last four at-large bids, worst four automatic bids) are denoted by italics. The raw values of these metrics for all 353 Division-1 teams can be found here . Teams are selected and seeded using a combination of logistic regression based at-large odds and linear regression to predict the seed of selected teams based on historical data since the 2015-2016 season.

We will be featured in the Bracket Matrix, a site that compares and evaluates over 100 bracketology rankings from all corners of the internet, if you're curious how these rankings stack up against other systems. Additionally, Ken Massey's site will be tracking how our model (and dozens of other models) fairs this season, so feel free to check out our progress there. The code used for this project can be found on GitHub and the methodology for this project can be found here.

NOTE: Only D1 games are considered for the purpose of these rankings

To sort a table by a specific column, simply click the column name.

Selection Sunday Contingincies

Winner of Ivy title game gets 13 seed
Winner of Sunbelt title game gets 14 seed
If Michigan wins Big 10 title game, UNC gets final 1 seed and MSU moves down to 2

YUSAG Bracket

Seed Line	Overall Seed	Team	Conference	YUSAG Rank	RPI Rank	SOR Rank	Resume Rank	WAB Rank	Blend	Avg.	At-Large Odds
1	1	Virginia	ACC	3	4	1	3	2	2.62	2.60	100.00
1	2	Gonzaga	WCC	1	6	9	17	15	10.30	9.60	100.00
1	3	Duke	ACC	2	1	2	4	1	2.37	2.00	99.91
2	5	Michigan St.	Big 10	5	10	6	2	4	4.85	5.40	99.88
1	4	North Carolina	ACC	4	5	3	6	3	4.47	4.20	99.88
2	6	Michigan	Big 10	8	11	5	1	5	5.20	6.00	99.87
2	7	Tennessee	SEC	6	8	4	5	6	5.57	5.80	99.86
2	8	Kentucky	SEC	7	9	7	7	7	7.30	7.40	99.82
3	9	Houston	AAC	13	2	10	13	12	10.62	10.00	99.72
3	10	Florida St.	ACC	16	12	8	10	9	10.97	11.00	99.71
3	11	Kansas	Big 12	20	3	13	9	8	10.97	10.60	99.71
3	12	LSU	SEC	19	13	11	8	10	11.80	12.20	99.67
4	13	Texas Tech	Big 12	10	17	12	12	11	12.22	12.40	99.65
4	14	Purdue	Big 10	9	18	17	15	14	14.52	14.60	99.52
4	15	Wisconsin	Big 10	14	27	19	11	13	15.85	16.80	99.43
4	16	Buffalo	MAC	18	7	14	23	19	17.30	16.20	99.30
5	17	Kansas St.	Big 12	24	19	18	14	16	17.80	18.20	99.25
5	18	Auburn	SEC	12	24	21	20	17	18.82	18.80	99.13
5	19	Virginia Tech	ACC	11	29	15	24	18	19.60	19.40	99.04
5	20	Villanova	Big East	26	15	28	16	22	21.00	21.40	98.83
6	21	Maryland	Big 10	22	22	22	22	20	21.75	21.60	98.71
6	22	Wofford	Southern	25	14	16	26	26	22.00	21.40	98.66
6	23	Mississippi St.	SEC	21	25	27	21	21	22.80	23.00	98.50
6	24	Iowa St.	Big 12	17	31	37	19	23	24.50	25.40	98.11
7	25	Cincinnati	AAC	35	16	23	25	25	25.25	24.80	97.91
7	26	Nevada	MWC	23	21	20	31	29	25.45	24.80	97.85
7	27	Marquette	Big East	27	32	36	18	28	26.75	28.20	97.44
7	28	Louisville	ACC	15	34	34	36	27	29.97	29.20	96.04
8	29	Washington	Pac 12	53	26	32	29	31	34.20	34.20	93.09
8	30	Iowa	Big 10	37	61	31	28	24	34.85	36.20	92.49
8	31	Oklahoma	Big 12	34	50	50	34	33	39.47	40.20	86.61
8	32	UCF	AAC	47	30	41	39	42	40.02	39.80	85.70
9	33	Utah St.	MWC	45	28	29	32	34	33.65	33.60	80.29
9	34	Minnesota	Big 10	48	44	40	46	30	42.90	41.60	80.07
9	35	NC State	ACC	28	107	33	35	32	43.62	47.00	78.41
9	36	Seton Hall	Big East	54	49	65	27	44	45.42	47.80	73.87
10	37	TCU	Big 12	44	56	58	37	41	45.95	47.20	72.43
10	38	Syracuse	ACC	32	45	47	58	37	46.02	43.80	72.22
10	39	Temple	AAC	73	42	46	33	47	46.70	48.20	70.30
10	40	Ole Miss	SEC	40	68	54	42	40	47.65	48.80	67.47
11	41	VCU	A-10	38	23	38	44	50	39.20	38.60	65.30
11	42	New Mexico St.	WAC	50	36	24	45	39	39.70	38.80	63.71
11	43	Baylor	Big 12	39	55	59	49	46	49.52	49.60	61.50
11	44	Arizona St.	Pac 12	62	46	57	47	55	52.85	53.40	50.14
11	45	St. John's (NY)	Big East	76	63	63	30	54	53.75	57.20	47.02
11	46	Ohio St.	Big 10	42	78	52	60	35	54.37	53.40	44.86
12	47	Saint Mary's (CA)	WCC	41	33	55	51	59	48.10	47.80	35.29
12	48	Murray St.	OVC	58	35	25	43	49	41.95	42.00	27.31
12	49	Oregon	Pac 12	46	51	84	57	64	60.17	60.40	26.63
12	50	UC Irvine	Big West	84	59	35	53	53	56.50	56.80	4.72
13	51	Liberty	A-Sun	93	69	43	52	60	61.95	63.40	2.27
13	52	Vermont	Am. East	90	53	39	71	62	64.57	63.00	1.59
13	53	Yale	Ivy	88	39	49	74	71	66.17	64.20	1.27
13	54	Northeastern	CAA	99	40	82	102	88	86.35	82.20	0.08
14	55	Georgia St.	Sunbelt	123	52	79	96	83	89.77	86.60	0.05
14	56	Old Dominion	C-USA	124	66	67	99	84	90.77	88.00	0.04
14	57	Northern Ky.	Horizon	108	89	64	101	87	91.45	89.80	0.04
14	58	Saint Louis	A-10	113	101	103	94	102	101.65	102.60	0.01
15	59	Montana	Big Sky	140	67	71	119	101	103.55	99.60	0.01
15	60	Abilene Christian	Southland	160	112	48	110	85	104.77	103.00	0.01
15	61	Colgate	Patriot	137	81	92	143	121	119.55	114.80	0.00
15	62	Gardner-Webb	Big South	174	129	100	125	129	130.90	131.40	0.00
16	63	Texas Southern	SWAC	228	183	109	147	140	160.12	161.40	0.00
16	64	Bradley	MVC	163	165	175	189	175	175.65	173.40	0.00
16	65	North Dakota St.	Summit	205	162	166	193	180	183.72	181.20	0.00
16	66	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	227	171	168	235	199	205.90	200.00	0.00
16	67	Iona	MAAC	207	188	203	252	217	219.22	213.40	0.00
16	68	N.C. Central	MEAC	302	275	200	243	220	248.12	248.00	0.00

First 16 Teams Out

Overall Seed	Team	Conference	YUSAG Rank	RPI Rank	SOR Rank	Resume Rank	WAB Rank	Blend	Avg.	At-Large Odds
69	Alabama	SEC	55	57	77	50	52	57.70	58.20	33.87
70	Clemson	ACC	29	71	53	84	38	59.10	55.00	29.65
71	Belmont	OVC	56	37	30	41	51	42.45	43.00	25.95
72	UNC Greensboro	Southern	94	20	26	38	36	43.85	42.80	22.38
73	Memphis	AAC	52	48	76	66	63	62.12	61.00	21.67
74	Florida	SEC	31	76	69	86	48	65.35	62.00	15.01
75	Creighton	Big East	49	75	94	55	65	65.85	67.60	14.14
76	Furman	Southern	57	47	42	48	58	49.70	50.40	11.33
77	Georgetown	Big East	81	94	86	40	66	68.75	73.40	9.91
78	Toledo	MAC	60	38	45	54	57	51.37	50.80	9.19
79	Texas	Big 12	30	64	85	62	56	59.75	59.40	6.95
80	Indiana	Big 10	36	104	60	61	43	60.00	60.80	6.77
81	Lipscomb	A-Sun	59	62	44	56	61	55.72	56.40	5.23
82	Nebraska	Big 10	33	100	72	70	45	64.37	64.00	4.20
83	Providence	Big East	68	93	108	67	79	80.80	83.00	2.02
84	ETSU	Southern	77	60	61	59	73	64.90	66.00	1.52

Bid Breakdown

Conference	Bids
ACC	8
Big 10	8
Big 12	7
SEC	6
AAC	4
Big East	4
Pac 12	3
A-10	2
MWC	2
WCC	2
A-Sun	1
Am. East	1
Big Sky	1
Big South	1
Big West	1
C-USA	1
CAA	1
Horizon	1
Ivy	1
MAAC	1
MAC	1
MEAC	1
MVC	1
NEC	1
OVC	1
Patriot	1
Southern	1
Southland	1
Summit	1
Sunbelt	1
SWAC	1
WAC	1