YUSAG Bracketology

Updated November 19th

By: Luke Benz

Welcome to YUSAG Bracketology! Below is our attempt to predict the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament field of 68. Automatic bids are awarded to the highest ranked team in each conference, per our power-rankings. At-large bids are awarded to the 36 remaining teams with the best blend of several metrics. Those metrics are:

  • YUSAG Coefficient: Model coefficients for NCAA Hoops prediction model, used in our power rankings. More on model methodology can be found here
  • RPI: NCAA Rating Percentage Index. RPI is a stupid, outdated way to select tournament teams, yet the NCAA uses it anyway. Did we mention it's stupid? Note that the RPI we use is a projected end of season RPI that updates throughout the course of the season.
  • Strength of Record (SOR): We calculate strength of record by computing the difference in a team's win total and the number of wins we would expect the average Top-25 ranked team (per YUSAG Coefficient) to earn against a given team's schedule. We use projected end of season win total (which updates with each new game outcome) when computing Strength of Record to avoid one strange result skewing this metric
  • Resume Rank: Using our power rankings, we compute each team's record against the four tiers recently added to the NCAA Tournament selection committee's "Win Sheets". These records are then combined to create a quality of resume metric. The current formula for quality of resume can be seen below.
  • Wins Above Bubble (WAB): The difference in the number of wins a team has compared to the expected number of wins an average "bubble" team would earn against a given teams' schedule. We compute WAB by computing a team's win expected win difference against each of the at-large teams ranked 32-40 by YUSAG coefficient and averaging these differences

Using a weighted "blend" of the metrics, the teams are selected to the bracket.The current "blend" formula can be seen below.. Automatic bids are denoted by bold, while the "First Four" (last four at-large bids, worst four automatic bids) are denoted by italics. The raw values of these metrics for all 353 Division-1 teams can be found here . Teams are selected and seeded using a combination of logistic regression based at-large odds and linear regression to predict the seed of selected teams based on historical data since the 2015-2016 season.

We will be featured in the Bracket Matrix, a site that compares and evaluates over 100 bracketology rankings from all corners of the internet, if you're curious how these rankings stack up against other systems. Additionally, Ken Massey's site will be tracking how our model (and dozens of other models) fairs this season, so feel free to check out our progress there. The code used for this project can be found on GitHub and the methodology for this project can be found here.

NOTE: Only D1 games are considered for the purpose of these rankings


To sort a table by a specific column, simply click the column name.

YUSAG Bracket
Seed Line Overall Seed Team Conference YUSAG Rank RPI Rank SOR Rank Resume Rank WAB Rank Blend Avg. At-Large Odds
1 1 North Carolina ACC 1 1 1 2 1 1.30 1.20 99.82
1 2 Kansas Big 12 5 2 4 1 3 2.75 3.00 99.78
1 3 Michigan St. Big 10 2 6 2 3 2 3.30 3.00 99.77
1 4 Duke ACC 3 3 3 4 4 3.40 3.40 99.76
2 5 Tennessee SEC 4 8 5 5 5 5.50 5.40 99.68
2 6 Mississippi St. SEC 10 7 8 8 6 8.05 7.80 99.58
2 7 Kentucky SEC 8 10 11 6 7 8.10 8.40 99.53
2 8 Nevada MWC 6 4 6 31 8 13.20 11.00 99.29
3 9 Virginia Tech ACC 14 11 10 17 10 13.35 12.40 99.21
3 10 Florida SEC 12 13 15 12 14 12.75 13.20 99.09
3 11 Virginia ACC 9 14 9 26 13 15.75 14.20 98.91
3 12 Purdue Big 10 17 16 17 10 15 14.45 15.00 98.89
4 13 Nebraska Big 10 15 25 14 11 11 15.80 15.20 98.83
4 14 LSU SEC 16 9 12 24 16 16.25 15.40 98.81
4 15 Michigan Big 10 18 34 13 7 9 17.30 16.20 98.69
4 16 Gonzaga WCC 7 5 7 45 17 18.90 16.20 98.51
5 17 Indiana Big 10 13 35 16 9 12 17.50 17.00 98.44
5 18 Maryland Big 10 19 21 20 15 19 18.40 18.80 98.12
5 19 Villanova Big East 11 18 19 23 20 18.05 18.20 98.11
5 20 Kansas St. Big 12 22 28 26 13 21 21.10 22.00 97.13
6 21 Texas Big 12 24 27 24 14 22 21.55 22.20 97.11
6 22 Ohio St. Big 10 25 37 18 18 18 24.50 23.20 96.71
6 23 Clemson ACC 21 23 22 32 24 25.20 24.40 95.92
6 24 UCLA Pac 12 26 15 25 36 28 26.35 26.00 95.17
7 25 Butler Big East 23 32 23 29 23 27.05 26.00 95.01
7 26 TCU Big 12 28 31 30 19 25 25.95 26.60 94.87
7 27 Florida St. ACC 38 19 27 28 27 28.05 27.80 94.58
7 28 Arizona St. Pac 12 30 20 31 35 29 29.00 29.00 93.02
8 29 West Virginia Big 12 20 30 42 22 36 26.90 30.00 91.10
8 30 Marquette Big East 31 38 35 25 31 31.35 32.00 89.68
8 31 Wisconsin Big 10 35 49 36 16 26 32.00 32.40 89.57
8 32 Washington Pac 12 34 24 34 39 32 32.80 32.60 89.18
9 33 Texas Tech Big 12 36 43 37 20 34 32.85 34.00 87.30
9 34 Penn St. Big 10 32 39 46 21 33 31.95 34.20 86.43
9 35 Oregon Pac 12 40 33 41 27 37 34.15 35.60 85.07
9 36 Cincinnati AAC 33 22 33 50 42 36.25 36.00 83.19
10 37 Southern California Pac 12 27 36 40 38 38 34.95 35.80 82.61
10 38 NC State ACC 29 56 29 37 30 38.25 36.20 82.10
10 39 St. John's (NY) Big East 41 51 32 34 35 39.90 38.60 78.79
10 40 Houston AAC 39 29 28 57 40 40.90 38.60 78.40
11 41 Buffalo MAC 48 12 21 73 43 43.30 39.40 78.20
11 42 Auburn SEC 42 40 43 40 41 40.90 41.20 71.98
11 43 Western Ky. C-USA 49 17 39 64 46 44.20 43.00 68.17
11 44 Syracuse ACC 37 44 47 47 45 43.55 44.00 61.65
11 45 Iowa St. Big 12 44 64 48 30 44 45.20 46.00 56.56
11 46 Iowa Big 10 43 78 44 33 39 48.45 47.40 51.17
12 47 San Diego St. MWC 47 45 38 75 47 54.00 50.40 41.45
12 48 Rhode Island A-10 67 42 58 84 65 64.75 63.20 12.07
12 49 Loyola Chicago MVC 66 47 55 85 69 66.15 64.40 10.22
12 50 Georgia St. Sunbelt 75 41 54 91 72 68.90 66.60 8.39
13 51 Furman Southern 117 50 45 92 62 80.05 73.20 5.39
13 52 Montana Big Sky 82 52 56 94 78 75.10 72.40 4.08
13 53 Belmont OVC 108 58 52 109 74 86.80 80.20 1.81
13 54 Harvard Ivy 88 46 74 101 92 80.40 80.20 1.44
14 55 South Dakota St. Summit 95 72 61 118 86 91.85 86.40 0.63
14 56 Northeastern CAA 97 53 99 107 106 90.10 92.40 0.27
14 57 Rider MAAC 101 69 82 129 103 99.70 96.80 0.15
14 58 Vermont Am. East 112 66 78 140 104 104.70 100.00 0.11
15 59 New Mexico St. WAC 122 114 76 125 102 114.30 107.80 0.04
15 60 Northern Ky. Horizon 135 108 65 144 98 120.25 110.00 0.03
15 61 Radford Big South 152 71 107 145 119 121.85 118.80 0.01
15 62 Lipscomb A-Sun 148 107 105 137 121 127.45 123.60 0.01
16 63 SFA Southland 139 128 87 134 118 127.45 121.20 0.01
16 64 Cal St. Fullerton Big West 129 149 150 156 149 146.20 146.60 0.00
16 65 Bucknell Patriot 168 141 162 181 170 164.75 164.40 0.00
16 66 Saint Francis (PA) NEC 181 100 115 186 138 151.35 144.00 0.00
16 67 Hampton MEAC 246 237 186 227 203 227.75 219.80 0.00
16 68 Prairie View SWAC 280 236 242 239 249 249.80 249.20 0.00




First 16 Teams Out
Overall Seed Team Conference YUSAG Rank RPI Rank SOR Rank Resume Rank WAB Rank Blend Avg. At-Large Odds
69 Vanderbilt SEC 55 63 59 41 48 52.50 53.20 34.03
70 Arkansas SEC 50 68 57 46 49 53.90 54.00 30.21
71 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 68 26 51 82 56 58.80 56.60 26.75
72 Notre Dame ACC 45 73 62 53 51 56.70 56.80 21.31
73 Seton Hall Big East 46 79 67 54 53 59.45 59.80 15.01
74 Alabama SEC 58 55 92 44 60 56.65 61.80 13.17
75 Creighton Big East 53 82 77 48 54 61.25 62.80 11.00
76 Oklahoma Big 12 60 74 90 42 57 60.80 64.60 9.34
77 Minnesota Big 10 56 111 70 43 50 66.65 66.00 7.42
78 Memphis AAC 69 59 66 79 64 68.70 67.40 7.06
79 Xavier Big East 52 106 72 49 55 66.90 66.80 6.37
80 Northwestern Big 10 51 118 63 51 52 69.05 67.00 6.13
81 Georgetown Big East 59 88 79 56 58 67.25 68.00 5.83
82 Georgia SEC 57 97 83 52 61 68.50 70.00 4.32
83 UNC Greensboro Southern 94 48 49 106 70 79.20 73.40 4.06
84 Stanford Pac 12 70 77 81 67 66 71.55 72.20 3.67




Conference Bids
Big 10 10
ACC 8
Big 12 7
SEC 6
Pac 12 5
Big East 4
AAC 2
MWC 2
A-10 1
A-Sun 1
Am. East 1
Big Sky 1
Big South 1
Big West 1
C-USA 1
CAA 1
Horizon 1
Ivy 1
MAAC 1
MAC 1
MEAC 1
MVC 1
NEC 1
OVC 1
Patriot 1
Southern 1
Southland 1
Summit 1
Sunbelt 1
SWAC 1
WAC 1
WCC 1