YUSAG Bracketology

Updated January 17th

By: Luke Benz

Welcome to YUSAG Bracketology! Below is our attempt to predict the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament field of 68. Automatic bids are awarded to the highest ranked per a blend of several metrics. At-large bids are awarded to the 36 remaining teams with the best blend of several metrics. Those metrics are:

  • YUSAG Coefficient: Model coefficients for NCAA Hoops prediction model, used in our power rankings. More on model methodology can be found here
  • RPI: NCAA Rating Percentage Index. RPI is a stupid, outdated way to select tournament teams, yet the NCAA uses it anyway. Did we mention it's stupid? Note that the RPI we use is a projected end of season RPI that updates throughout the course of the season.
  • Strength of Record (SOR): We calculate strength of record by computing the difference in a team's win total and the number of wins we would expect the average Top-25 ranked team (per YUSAG Coefficient) to earn against a given team's schedule. We use projected end of season win total (which updates with each new game outcome) when computing Strength of Record to avoid one strange result skewing this metric
  • Resume Rank: Using our power rankings, we compute each team's record against the four tiers recently added to the NCAA Tournament selection committee's "Win Sheets". These records are then combined to create a quality of resume metric. The current formula for quality of resume can be seen below.
  • Wins Above Bubble (WAB): The difference in the number of wins a team has compared to the expected number of wins an average "bubble" team would earn against a given teams' schedule. We compute WAB by computing a team's win expected win difference against each of the at-large teams ranked 32-40 by YUSAG coefficient and averaging these differences

Using a weighted "blend" of the metrics, the teams are selected to the bracket.The current "blend" formula can be seen below.. Automatic bids are denoted by bold, while the "First Four" (last four at-large bids, worst four automatic bids) are denoted by italics. The raw values of these metrics for all 353 Division-1 teams can be found here . Teams are selected and seeded using a combination of logistic regression based at-large odds and linear regression to predict the seed of selected teams based on historical data since the 2015-2016 season.

We will be featured in the Bracket Matrix, a site that compares and evaluates over 100 bracketology rankings from all corners of the internet, if you're curious how these rankings stack up against other systems. Additionally, Ken Massey's site will be tracking how our model (and dozens of other models) fairs this season, so feel free to check out our progress there. The code used for this project can be found on GitHub and the methodology for this project can be found here.

NOTE: Only D1 games are considered for the purpose of these rankings


To sort a table by a specific column, simply click the column name.

YUSAG Bracket
Seed Line Overall Seed Team Conference YUSAG Rank RPI Rank SOR Rank Resume Rank WAB Rank Blend Avg. At-Large Odds
1 1 Duke ACC 1 2 1 3 2 1.95 1.80 99.80
1 2 Michigan St. Big 10 3 4 3 1 1 2.45 2.40 99.79
1 3 Virginia ACC 4 5 2 5 3 4.25 3.80 99.75
1 4 Michigan Big 10 8 8 5 2 4 5.50 5.40 99.69
2 5 Kansas Big 12 12 1 7 4 5 5.65 5.80 99.69
2 6 Tennessee SEC 5 6 4 6 6 5.55 5.40 99.68
2 7 Gonzaga WCC 2 3 6 22 7 9.15 8.00 99.52
2 8 North Carolina ACC 7 12 12 9 8 9.45 9.60 99.43
3 9 Texas Tech Big 12 11 14 8 8 9 10.35 10.00 99.42
3 10 Auburn SEC 9 9 13 10 10 9.80 10.20 99.39
3 11 Virginia Tech ACC 10 19 9 16 11 14.05 13.00 99.10
3 12 Nebraska Big 10 6 30 14 7 12 13.70 13.80 98.94
4 13 Maryland Big 10 22 16 17 12 16 16.40 16.60 98.68
4 14 Oklahoma Big 12 23 18 22 11 13 17.05 17.40 98.53
4 15 TCU Big 12 15 15 20 19 15 16.70 16.80 98.52
4 16 Buffalo MAC 17 7 11 33 20 19.00 17.60 98.38
5 17 Iowa St. Big 12 14 21 21 18 19 18.15 18.60 98.06
5 18 Purdue Big 10 13 24 25 14 18 17.75 18.80 97.98
5 19 Nevada MWC 19 10 10 37 22 21.55 19.60 97.89
5 20 Marquette Big East 29 17 19 21 17 21.40 20.60 97.83
6 21 Kentucky SEC 18 25 18 23 21 21.55 21.00 97.39
6 22 Houston AAC 33 11 15 28 24 23.30 22.20 97.39
6 23 Iowa Big 10 32 40 16 13 14 24.90 23.00 97.04
6 24 Louisville ACC 16 22 23 26 23 21.90 22.00 96.92
7 25 LSU SEC 27 23 27 24 26 25.00 25.40 95.61
7 26 Mississippi St. SEC 34 27 36 15 28 26.15 28.00 94.17
7 27 Cincinnati AAC 28 13 33 34 34 27.15 28.40 93.42
7 28 Florida St. ACC 31 32 29 25 27 28.85 28.80 93.28
8 29 Indiana Big 10 25 52 32 17 25 30.05 30.20 91.33
8 30 Villanova Big East 36 20 40 29 33 30.00 31.60 90.71
8 31 Ohio St. Big 10 26 47 35 27 30 32.85 33.00 87.62
8 32 Wisconsin Big 10 21 53 42 20 29 31.60 33.00 86.97
9 33 Ole Miss SEC 35 42 34 31 31 35.05 34.60 86.15
9 34 Arizona Pac 12 40 31 39 35 35 35.65 36.00 84.31
9 35 Wofford Southern 37 29 28 60 40 41.30 38.80 77.49
9 36 St. John's (NY) Big East 47 34 46 41 36 40.75 40.80 74.28
10 37 NC State ACC 20 88 26 32 32 42.40 39.60 71.50
10 38 Texas Big 12 30 45 64 30 38 37.95 41.40 68.43
10 39 Washington Pac 12 50 35 44 49 43 44.65 44.20 64.51
10 40 San Francisco WCC 42 33 31 74 44 48.45 44.80 60.25
11 41 Florida SEC 24 65 59 39 37 43.55 44.80 55.11
11 42 UCF AAC 48 28 58 51 52 45.30 47.40 52.64
11 43 Lipscomb A-Sun 45 49 30 66 47 51.00 47.40 51.76
11 44 Seton Hall Big East 53 43 65 40 42 46.70 48.60 49.71
11 45 Syracuse ACC 38 63 55 42 41 47.45 47.80 48.25
11 46 Kansas St. Big 12 52 57 61 36 39 48.05 49.00 47.95
12 47 VCU A-10 56 26 50 63 53 49.70 49.60 46.93
12 48 Murray St. OVC 51 41 24 84 48 55.40 49.60 45.48
12 49 Temple AAC 73 36 54 48 49 51.95 52.00 43.16
12 50 Utah St. MWC 43 55 49 59 57 52.80 52.60 32.86
13 51 Vermont Am. East 83 37 37 96 59 68.40 62.40 15.69
13 52 Hofstra CAA 87 39 43 104 65 73.50 67.60 8.35
13 53 Yale Ivy 95 56 51 100 73 80.15 75.00 3.27
13 54 New Mexico St. WAC 70 62 56 106 74 77.80 73.60 3.01
14 55 Georgia St. Sunbelt 115 51 71 82 71 80.30 78.00 2.68
14 56 North Texas C-USA 130 76 41 108 66 94.60 84.20 1.31
14 57 Northern Ky. Horizon 98 96 57 122 81 98.90 90.80 0.35
14 58 Drake MVC 108 70 84 123 93 99.10 95.60 0.19
15 59 UC Irvine Big West 124 100 72 112 85 105.30 98.60 0.15
15 60 South Dakota St. Summit 68 108 68 141 97 102.80 96.40 0.11
15 61 Montana Big Sky 129 81 82 140 106 113.30 107.60 0.04
15 62 Radford Big South 139 93 91 139 108 119.60 114.00 0.02
16 63 Abilene Christian Southland 181 130 62 157 101 141.15 126.20 0.01
16 64 Bucknell Patriot 143 97 107 169 129 134.30 129.00 0.00
16 65 Rider MAAC 167 125 118 172 154 151.80 147.20 0.00
16 66 Texas Southern SWAC 208 175 111 161 143 169.45 159.60 0.00
16 67 Wagner NEC 225 155 156 234 187 199.50 191.40 0.00
16 68 N.C. A&T MEAC 263 225 160 207 185 218.60 208.00 0.00




Overall Seed Team Conference YUSAG Rank RPI Rank SOR Rank Resume Rank WAB Rank Blend Avg. At-Large Odds
69 Creighton Big East 44 44 80 47 50 49.10 53.00 31.83
70 ETSU Southern 57 38 45 77 55 56.85 54.40 30.70
71 Butler Big East 41 48 83 44 51 48.85 53.40 29.84
72 Clemson ACC 46 69 70 43 45 53.15 54.60 27.44
73 Belmont OVC 84 58 38 62 54 63.30 59.20 23.13
74 Fresno St. MWC 54 79 47 72 56 65.15 61.60 12.97
75 Toledo MAC 64 46 53 87 62 65.10 62.40 12.97
76 Minnesota Big 10 66 98 73 38 46 64.30 64.20 10.49
77 Furman Southern 86 59 48 78 61 70.55 66.40 9.69
78 Alabama SEC 63 68 93 45 58 61.35 65.40 8.67
79 Dayton A-10 61 50 69 81 67 65.65 65.60 8.26
80 Arizona St. Pac 12 65 67 86 46 69 62.30 66.60 7.54
81 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 39 54 77 83 72 63.05 65.00 7.06
82 Arkansas SEC 49 91 88 55 63 66.60 69.20 4.41
83 Baylor Big 12 55 85 96 50 64 66.00 70.00 4.22
84 Pittsburgh ACC 58 109 81 53 60 71.75 72.20 3.20




Conference Bids
Big 10 9
ACC 8
Big 12 7
SEC 7
AAC 4
Big East 4
MWC 2
Pac 12 2
WCC 2
A-10 1
A-Sun 1
Am. East 1
Big Sky 1
Big South 1
Big West 1
C-USA 1
CAA 1
Horizon 1
Ivy 1
MAAC 1
MAC 1
MEAC 1
MVC 1
NEC 1
OVC 1
Patriot 1
Southern 1
Southland 1
Summit 1
Sunbelt 1
SWAC 1
WAC 1