Predictions Regarding the NBA Playoffs
By: Daniel Tokarz
Updated: March 25th
Based on 15,000 simulations of 2017/2018 NBA Season
Read up on the math behind this here
Read up on the R script behind this here
West
| Rank | Team | Current Wins | Expected Wins | YUSAG Coefficient | Playoff Prob | Top 4 Seed Prob | Top 2 Seed Prob | Top Seed Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Rockets | 59 | 66.6 | 8.82 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.999 |
| 2 | Golden State Warriors | 54 | 61.8 | 7.32 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2e-04.000 |
| 3 | Portland Trail Blazers | 44 | 49.3 | 2.39 | 0.998 | 0.791 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 4 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 44 | 48.2 | 2.89 | 0.996 | 0.453 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 5 | San Antonio Spurs | 43 | 48.1 | 2.98 | 0.993 | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 6 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 42 | 47.3 | 2.40 | 0.974 | 0.157 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 7 | New Orleans Pelicans | 43 | 47.1 | 0.48 | 0.972 | 0.142 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 8 | Utah Jazz | 41 | 46.0 | 3.02 | 0.850 | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9 | Denver Nuggets | 40 | 44.0 | 1.17 | 0.152 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Clippers | 38 | 43.2 | 0.64 | 0.065 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Lakers | 32 | 36.4 | -1.55 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 12 | Sacramento Kings | 24 | 26.4 | -7.09 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 13 | Dallas Mavericks | 22 | 26.0 | -2.28 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 14 | Memphis Grizzlies | 19 | 21.2 | -6.08 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 15 | Phoenix Suns | 19 | 20.4 | -9.58 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
East
| Rank | Team | Current Wins | Expected Wins | YUSAG Coefficient | Playoff Prob | Top 4 Seed Prob | Top 2 Seed Prob | Top Seed Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Raptors | 54 | 60.8 | 7.56 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.998 |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 49 | 55.4 | 3.38 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.999 | 0.001 |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | 42 | 49.0 | 2.99 | 1.000 | 0.951 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 4 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 43 | 48.1 | 0.10 | 1.000 | 0.832 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 5 | Indiana Pacers | 42 | 45.9 | 0.73 | 1.000 | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 6 | Washington Wizards | 40 | 45.6 | 0.89 | 1.000 | 0.093 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 7 | Miami Heat | 39 | 44.2 | -0.02 | 1.000 | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 8 | Milwaukee Bucks | 38 | 42.4 | -0.78 | 0.993 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9 | Detroit Pistons | 33 | 37.8 | -0.90 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 10 | Charlotte Hornets | 33 | 37.3 | -0.22 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 11 | New York Knicks | 26 | 29.5 | -3.54 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 12 | Chicago Bulls | 24 | 26.5 | -6.75 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 13 | Brooklyn Nets | 23 | 26.4 | -4.12 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 14 | Orlando Magic | 22 | 25.6 | -4.87 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks | 21 | 23.3 | -5.56 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |